DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 08Z TUE 14/01 - 06Z WED 15/01 2003
ISSUED: 14/01 07:21Z
FORECASTER: HAVEN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH ISLES, NORTHERN NORTH SEA

SYNOPSIS

STRONG WSW-ENE UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL EUROPE AS WELL AS UPPER LOW OVER SWRN MEDITERRANEAN SEA REMAIN STATIONARY. VORT MAX OVER SRN SWEDEN MOVES SE TWRDS BALTIC STATES/S-FINLAND. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS OVER N-CNTRL ATLANTIC OCCUR AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. STRONG DCVA AND WAA WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE, EXPECTED BETWEEN ICELAND AND SCOTLAND, WEDNESDAY AT 06Z. ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM SW-NORWAY TO WALES BY THEN.

DISCUSSION

...NORTHERN BRITISH ISLES, NORTHERN NORTH SEA...
PROG-SOUNDINGS INDICATE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MARGINAL UNSTABLE IN NRN PART OF WARM SECTOR OF DEEPENING ATLANTIC SFC CYCLONE. ESPECIALLY NEAR COLDFRONT PARCELS CAN BE LIFTED VIGOUROUSLY, SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN SOME (EMBEDDED) TSTMS. LARGE HODOGRAPH LENGTHS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE WINDGUSTS. TSTM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS AND THE FACT THAT TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LOW, MAKES THE ISSUE OF SLGT RISK NOT NECESSARY ATTM. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, SOME FRICTION-INDUCED WINDGUSTS /UP TO 75 KT/ ARE VERY LIKELY AT THE SCOTTISH WEST COAST, SINCE AVERAGE WINDSPEEDS WILL EXCEED 50 KT.

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A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR WITH ACTIVITY OVER SRN SCANDINAVIA AND OVER MEDITERRANEAN AREAS.

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